Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (BBC, US News & World Report). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (Rio Times).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.