Started Sep 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 02, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?

Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (BBC, US News & World Report). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (Rio Times).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 41.0% 5%
Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive 14%
More than 44.0% but less than 47.0% 33%
Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 34%
More than 50.0% 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 381
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username