What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?

Started Sep 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (BBC, US News & World Report). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (Rio Times).

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The question closed "Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 41.0% 5%
Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive 14%
More than 44.0% but less than 47.0% 33%
Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 34%
More than 50.0% 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 209
Number of Forecasts 381
Average for questions older than 6 months: 592
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.431
2.
-0.358
3.
-0.242

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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