What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?
Closed Oct 02, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (BBC, US News & World Report). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (Rio Times).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 41.0% | 5% | |
Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive | 14% | |
More than 44.0% but less than 47.0% | 33% | |
Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive | 34% | |
More than 50.0% | 14% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 129 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 209 | |
Number of Forecasts | 381 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 592 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |