Started Oct 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 25, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will the city council building in Kherson, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 25 November 2022, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Fighting has been reported near the Ukrainian city of Kherson in the south of the country, which is currently under Russian occupation (AP, Politico, Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is Ushakova Avenue, 37, Kherson (Ushakova prospekt 37, Kherson, Khersonska oblast, UKR), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 97.60%
No 2.40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 202
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 771
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.367
2.
-0.367
4.
-0.367
5.
-0.354

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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