Before 1 January 2024, will a nuclear device be detonated somewhere in the world?

Started Oct 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As of the launch of this question, it is generally believed that no fewer than nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons (Arms Control Association, Federation of American Scientists). Whether a detonation is characterized as a test, an accident, a warning, or an attack would be immaterial, and the detonation of a device in orbit around Earth would count. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). Whether or not a nuclear device has been detonated will be determined using credible open source media reporting. That determination must be made during the question's open period to count, as well as the detonation.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 5 October 2023: The question is concerned with a nuclear device being detonated. A nuclear-fueled delivery system, like a missile, for a nuclear device is immaterial.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.77%
No 96.23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 264
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 1128
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.29812
2.
-0.297641
3.
-0.290266
4.
-0.287987
5.
-0.287917

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username