Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will Lebanon's parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, elect a new President of the Republic before 1 January 2023?

The Chamber of Deputies has yet to form a new government or elect a new President of the Republic since delayed elections were held in May 2022, and President Michel Aoun left office at the expiration of his term in October 2022 (AP, France24, Arab News). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president by means other than election by the Chamber of Deputies would not count (Constitution of Lebanon).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.40%
No 99.60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 90
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.007
3.
-0.007
4.
-0.007

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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