Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will a ride-hailing service open to the public, which uses autonomous vehicles, be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai with passengers?

Started Nov 08, 2022 10:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, with mapping and testing commencing in July 2022 (Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, The National). The service, while operating or testing, must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.

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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2023 0%
Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023 0%
Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023 0%
Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023 2%
Not before 1 January 2024 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 226
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.080148
2.
-0.079509
3.
-0.076959
4.
-0.075199
5.
-0.058054

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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