The Economist asks:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 October 2023?

Started Nov 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.95%
No 97.05%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 671
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 2425
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.020529
3.
-0.020529
4.
-0.020529

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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