Started Nov 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 26, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will the location of the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cease to be under Ukrainian control before 26 January 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Ukrainian forces are facing heavy fire from Russian troops attempting to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region (EuroNews, US News & World Report, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.74%
No 99.26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 596
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.028
2.
-0.028
3.
-0.027
4.
-0.027
5.
-0.027

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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