Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) asks:

What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 11, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Romance Scams totaled $213 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).

Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.

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The question closed "Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 11 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $213 million 5%
Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive 64%
More than $270 million but less than $328 million 21%
$328 million or more 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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