Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) asks:

What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 11, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Business Imposters totaled $151 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).

Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.

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The question closed "More than $252 million but less than $353 million" with a closing date of 11 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $151 million 1%
Between $151 million and $252 million, inclusive 14%
More than $252 million but less than $353 million 78%
$353 million or more 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 98
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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