The Economist asks:

Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2 May 2023?

Started Dec 02, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 02, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Economist, Politico, NPR, ABC News, Track Vaccines, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count.

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NOTE 22 December 2022: China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 2 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.36%
No 93.64%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 338
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 812
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042619
2.
-0.042619
3.
-0.042619
4.
-0.042619
5.
-0.042619

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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