Started Aug 23, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?

Nkurunziza survived a coup attempt in May 2015 before winning a second term as president in a controversial election (Reuters). The armed conflict aimed at toppling Burundi's government has intensified since then (Deutsche Welle, ACLED). In the event that Nkurunziza reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Nkurunziza returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017? Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017? Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?


Pierre Nkurunziza remains president of Burundi. This question closed as "Not before 1 January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 January 2018 100%

No. of
Forecasters

159

Forecast
Count

1135

Crowd Brier Score

0.0072


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013
2.
-0.011
3.
-0.011
4.
-0.011

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