The Economist asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 28 July 2023?

Started Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Growth expectations for the S&P 500 in 2023 have moderated going into the end of 2022 (Economist, US News & World Report, JPMorgan). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).

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The question closed "More than 4,400 but less than 4,650" with a closing date of 28 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3,150 0%
Between 3,150 and 3,400, inclusive 0%
More than 3,400 but less than 3,650 0%
Between 3,650 and 3,900, inclusive 1%
More than 3,900 but less than 4,150 5%
Between 4,150 and 4,400, inclusive 18%
More than 4,400 but less than 4,650 67%
4,650 or more 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 241
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 1221
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.306077
2.
-0.28898
3.
-0.286823
4.
-0.284546
5.
-0.276821

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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