The Economist and Chrisp ask:

Will Giorgia Meloni cease to be the prime minister of Italy before 1 October 2023?

Started Dec 23, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Giorgia Meloni was sworn in as the first female prime minister of Italy in October 2022 amid high energy prices, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic issues (Economist, US News & World Report, Politico, Atlantic Council).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.20%
No 96.80%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 328
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 895
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.035093
3.
-0.035093
4.
-0.035093
5.
-0.03504

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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