Will the water level at Lake Powell fall below the minimum power pool elevation of 3,490 feet in 2023?

Started Dec 23, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Amid historic drought and high demand, water levels are so low at Lake Powell, a reservoir in Arizona and Utah, that hydroelectric power generation is threatened (Las Vegas Review Journal, 12News). The minimum power pool elevation, the minimum level of the lake necessary to generate electricity, is 3,490 feet (US Bureau of Reclamation - 2-Year Probabilistic Projections). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Reclamation (US Bureau of Reclamation - Upper Colorado Region Historic Data). Select "Reservoir" under "Water Operations: Historic Data," change "SELECT SITE" to "LAKE POWELL," select the range of data you want, and check only "Elevation (feet)" on the left, "Data Table" on the right, and click "Submit." On 1 December 2022, the elevation of Lake Powell was 3527.89 feet.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.64%
No 95.36%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 225
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003879
2.
-0.00364
3.
-0.00364
5.
-0.003571

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username