How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2023?
Started
Dec 23, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
While inventories improved in 2022, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (Cox Automotive, PR Newswire, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2023 data are first available (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 12.5 million | 0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive | 0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million | 0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive | 1.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +1.00% |
| More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million | 2.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +1.00% |
| Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive | 3.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +1.00% |
| More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million | 11.00% | +0.00% | -1.00% | -5.00% |
| Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive | 55.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +3.00% |
| More than 16.0 million | 28.00% | +0.00% | +1.00% | -1.00% |