How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2023?

Started Dec 23, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While inventories improved in 2022, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (Cox Automotive, PR Newswire, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2023 data are first available (FRED).

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The question closed "Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 12.5 million 0%
Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million 0%
Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million 1%
Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive 2%
More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million 2%
Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive 80%
More than 16.0 million 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 364
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.31301
3.
-0.215194
4.
-0.203362
5.
-0.186991

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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