The Economist asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2023?

Started Dec 30, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The PRC continues to hold military drills near Taiwan as the island nation extends the term of mandatory military service (Economist, Axios, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.65%
No 94.35%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 382
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 932
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007626
3.
-0.007626
4.
-0.007553
5.
-0.007553

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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