Foxes Ask:

Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

Started Jan 05, 2023 12:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 07, 2023 06:28AM UTC

As of late afternoon on 4 January 2023, the House of Representatives has held six votes to elect a Speaker of the House, which is necessary before other House business may proceed (BBC, The Hill). If a Speaker of the House is elected on 4 January 2023 (PT), the question will be voided.

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The question closed "Kevin McCarthy" with a closing date of 6 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Hakeem Jeffries 1%
Jim Jordan 3%
Kevin McCarthy 75%
Steve Scalise 7%
Someone else 9%
No one will be elected Speaker of the House of Representatives before 21 January 2023 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 221
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.447
2.
-0.355
3.
-0.3333
5.
-0.268

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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