Started Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC (4 months ago)

Will Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%?

Egypt's economy has sputtered since 2011 despite billions of dollars in aid from neighboring states; the promise of a three-year, $12-billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund -- and the reforms that loan would require -- are spurring optimism among some observers and pessimism among others (NY Times, Financial Times, Reuters). Question will be resolved using data from Egypt's Central Bank, which releases monthly data on real sector growth (Central Bank of Egypt). You can find the relevant table by clicking on the "Real Sector" Excel sheet and looking at Tab 44 "GDP by Expenditure (Constant Prices)." The relevant figure for this question is on the "GDP at Market Prices" row, and the column labeled 2016/2017 under "Growth Rate %". Question will be suspended on 30 June 2017, the end of Egypt's fiscal 2016/2017 fiscal year, and closed when the data is released, typically in early December.

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Name Probability
Yes 0%

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