Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the New York Times report more than 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 in Virginia for a single day between 10 January 2023 and 15 March 2023?

Started Jan 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

After declining steadily since August 2022, daily new cases of COVID-19 began to rise in December 2022 (WTVR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the New York Times (NY Times, select "Last 90 days" under "New reported cases" and hover your cursor over the chart for data). For 2 January 2023, 6,430 new cases were reported in Virginia.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 16 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.17%
No 99.83%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 149
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.027
3.
-0.022
5.
-0.009

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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