Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the New York Times report more than 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 in Virginia for a single day between 10 January 2023 and 15 March 2023?
Closed Mar 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
After declining steadily since August 2022, daily new cases of COVID-19 began to rise in December 2022 (WTVR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the New York Times (NY Times, select "Last 90 days" under "New reported cases" and hover your cursor over the chart for data). For 2 January 2023, 6,430 new cases were reported in Virginia.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 16 March 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.17% | |
| No | 99.83% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 44 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 166 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 149 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 368 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
