Started Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 22, 2016 06:00PM UTC

When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?

This question was closed as "Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017 with an end date of 22 December 2016 (CNN, NY Times, Aljazeera). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Government forces backed by Russian airpower continue their offensive to retake the city of Aleppo (Al-Monitor, Reuters, Radio Free Europe). This question involves military operations. See here for GJ's FAQ on questions about military operations. Recommended Questions Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017? When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 30 November 2016 0%
Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive 100%
Between 1 June 2017 and 30 November 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 30 November 2017 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 959
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.203
2.
-0.172
3.
-0.171
4.
-0.166

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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