When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?

Started Jun 21, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Raqqa still appears firmly in the Islamic State's grasp despite increased air strikes by France, Russia, and the US-led coalition (Reuters, NY Times, The Guardian, The Economist). Recommended Questions: Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017? Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
This question was closed as "Not before 1 June 2017" with an end date of 31 May 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 December 2016 0%
Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 June 2017 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 395
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 2001
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.184953
2.
-0.183496
3.
-0.180168
4.
-0.180168
5.
-0.178628

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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