Started Jan 05, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. There were 361,678 arrivals by sea in 2016 (UNHCR). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Europe continues to face a refugee crisis, with over one million refugees and migrants having arrived by sea in 2015 (NY Times, International Organization for Migration, BBC). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean (UNHCR). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will close once the data for 2016 are released. Recommended Questions Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016? Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Updated on 4/18/16: The UNHCR link was updated from http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html to http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 690
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 2909
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.433
2.
-0.432
3.
-0.43
4.
-0.43
5.
-0.43

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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