Started Nov 17, 2015 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 31, 2016 09:00PM UTC

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

This question was closed with the answer "No" on 3 August 2016 with an end date of 31 July 2016. Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific in 30 July 2016. Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (The Economist, NATO). Article 5 was invoked after the September 11 attacks in 2001 (NY Times). For more information on Article 4 and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, see NATO 1 and NATO 2. Recommended Questions Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017? Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only Article 4 0%
Yes, only Article 5 0%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 406
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 1481
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.11
2.
-0.11
3.
-0.108
5.
-0.107

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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