Fujitsu asks:

Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

Started Jan 16, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW "as of" 1 March 2023 (ISW). For the purposes of this question, the "following major cities in Ukraine" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, Kerch, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Sievierodonetsk, Simferopol, Yenakiieve, and Yevpatoria. Any "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" would be immaterial. The entire city must be out of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" to count.

NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 17 January 2023: We have made a slight adjustment to the stem to make it clearer as to that to which "two" refers.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.21%
No 95.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002543
2.
-0.002543
3.
-0.002543
4.
-0.002543
5.
-0.002543

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username