Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW "as of" 1 March 2023 (ISW). For the purposes of this question, the "following major cities in Ukraine" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, Kerch, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Sievierodonetsk, Simferopol, Yenakiieve, and Yevpatoria. Any "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" would be immaterial. The entire city must be out of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" to count.
NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
NOTE 17 January 2023: We have made a slight adjustment to the stem to make it clearer as to that to which "two" refers.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||84|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 220|
|Number of Forecasts||183|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 615|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|