Fujitsu asks:

Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

Started Jan 16, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW "as of" 1 March 2023 (ISW). For the purposes of this question, the "following major cities in Ukraine" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, Kerch, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Sievierodonetsk, Simferopol, Yenakiieve, and Yevpatoria. Any "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" would be immaterial. The entire city must be out of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" to count.

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NOTE 17 January 2023: We have made a slight adjustment to the stem to make it clearer as to that to which "two" refers.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.21%
No 95.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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