Fujitsu asks:

On 27 February 2023, will the most recent blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' include an estimate of the strength of Russian ground forces in and around Ukraine plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR to be greater than 200,000?

Started Jan 18, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As of 18 January 2023, the latest blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' included an estimate of strength of Russian ground forces, plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR, of 184,000 (see http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2023/01/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-327/). "The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000." The blog will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 17.60%
No 82.40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 160
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.758325
2.
-0.7422
3.
-0.592635
4.
-0.554895
5.
-0.55379

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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