Fujitsu asks:

Before 1 March 2023, will Russia either officially announce the formal annexation of additional territory in Ukraine or send uniformed military forces into another country without its government's permission?

Started Jan 18, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, "additional territory" means any Ukrainian territory other than territory in the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia. Forces that are not formally part of the Russian military (e.g., Wagner Group) would not count.

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NOTE 18 January 2023: The movement and presence of Russian troops where they were already deployed as of the launch of this question (e.g., Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Transnistria) would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.21%
No 97.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000171
2.
-0.000171
3.
-0.000171
4.
-0.000171
5.
-0.000171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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