Nonrival asks:

When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?

Started Jan 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 02:00PM UTC

The total number of paid subscribers for Disney's family of streaming services exceeded Netflix's total number of paid memberships for the first time in the second quarter of 2022 (Visual Capitalist, Deadline). Netflix's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, but Disney's fiscal year runs roughly from the beginning of October to the end of September of the following year. For the purposes of this question, we will treat the relevant quarters as covering the same relevant calendar quarters. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Netflix and Disney (Netflix, see "Letter to Shareholders" (quarterly), https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/, see "Quarterly Earning Reports"). For the second quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 220.67 million while Disney reported 221.1 million (Netflix - FY Q2 2022 Letter to Shareholders, sum "Paid Memberships" under "Regional Breakdown," or 220.67 million; Disney - FY Q3 2022 Quarterly Earnings Report, sum "Paid subscribers" in the first table on page 6, or 221.1 million). Disney's subscriber reporting currently includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined. If Disney sells one of those units, then its total would no longer be included. Likewise, any other acquisitions that Disney includes in its consumer streaming reporting would be included.

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The question closed "First quarter of 2023 or before" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
First quarter of 2023 or before 17%
Second quarter of 2023 21%
Third quarter of 2023 16%
Fourth quarter of 2023 14%
Not before 2024 33%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.326866
2.
-1.237816
3.
-1.018787
5.
-0.834835

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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