Started Jan 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Nonrival asks:

When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?

The total number of paid subscribers for Disney's family of streaming services exceeded Netflix's total number of paid memberships for the first time in the second quarter of 2022 (Visual Capitalist, Deadline). Netflix's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, but Disney's fiscal year runs roughly from the beginning of October to the end of September of the following year. For the purposes of this question, we will treat the relevant quarters as covering the same relevant calendar quarters. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Netflix and Disney (Netflix, see "Letter to Shareholders" (quarterly), https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/, see "Quarterly Earning Reports"). For the second quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 220.67 million while Disney reported 221.1 million (Netflix - FY Q2 2022 Letter to Shareholders, sum "Paid Memberships" under "Regional Breakdown," or 220.67 million; Disney - FY Q3 2022 Quarterly Earnings Report, sum "Paid subscribers" in the first table on page 6, or 221.1 million). Disney's subscriber reporting currently includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined. If Disney sells one of those units, then its total would no longer be included. Likewise, any other acquisitions that Disney includes in its consumer streaming reporting would be included.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
First quarter of 2023 or before 8.00% +0.00% +1.94%
Second quarter of 2023 6.00% -1.00% -2.50%
Third quarter of 2023 8.00% +0.00% -4.50%
Fourth quarter of 2023 8.00% -1.00% -8.44%
Not before 2024 70.00% +2.00% +13.50%

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