UBS asks:

Will monthly global land and sea temperature anomalies reach or exceed 1.4°C before October 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?

Started Feb 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA Earth Observatory). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA (NOAA - Global Anomalies and Index Data, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The highest anomaly, or the difference between a given time period as compared to the 20th century average, on record was 1.31°C in March 2016 as of the launch of this question.

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 12.64% +0.00% +2.11% +1.95%
No 87.36% -0.00% -2.11% -1.95%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username