UBS asks:

Will monthly global land and sea temperature anomalies reach or exceed 1.4°C before October 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?

Started Feb 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA Earth Observatory). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA (NOAA - Global Anomalies and Index Data, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The highest anomaly, or the difference between a given time period as compared to the 20th century average, on record was 1.31°C in March 2016 as of the launch of this question.

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11.38%
No 88.62%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 312
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.632796
2.
-1.619857
3.
-1.572361
4.
-1.525939
5.
-1.498859

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username