UBS asks:

What will be the total US rail freight carload and intermodal unit traffic in May 2023?

Started Mar 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Rail freight traffic has long been seen as a strong economic indicator (American Enterprise Institute). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using unadjusted Bureau of Transportation Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in July 2023 (FRED - Carloads, FRED - Intermodal). Intermodal units include shipping containers and truck trailers moved on rail cars (Association of American Railroads). As of 3 March 2023, total rail freight traffic in May 2022 was 2,235,748 (1,025,945 carloads + 1,209,803 intermodal units).

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The question closed "More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.9 million 6%
Between 1.9 million and 2.0 million, inclusive 13%
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million 51%
Between 2.1 million and 2.2 million, inclusive 16%
More than 2.2 million but fewer than 2.3 million 11%
2.3 million or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 155
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.129099
2.
-0.115966
3.
-0.106122
4.
-0.074527
5.
-0.061429

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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