UBS asks:
What will be the total US rail freight carload and intermodal unit traffic in May 2023?
Closed Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Rail freight traffic has long been seen as a strong economic indicator (American Enterprise Institute). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using unadjusted Bureau of Transportation Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in July 2023 (FRED - Carloads, FRED - Intermodal). Intermodal units include shipping containers and truck trailers moved on rail cars (Association of American Railroads). As of 3 March 2023, total rail freight traffic in May 2022 was 2,235,748 (1,025,945 carloads + 1,209,803 intermodal units).
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The question closed "More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 1.9 million | 6% | |
Between 1.9 million and 2.0 million, inclusive | 13% | |
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million | 51% | |
Between 2.1 million and 2.2 million, inclusive | 16% | |
More than 2.2 million but fewer than 2.3 million | 11% | |
2.3 million or more | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 48 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 155 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |