UBS asks:

Will the percentage of departure flights at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) either delayed or cancelled in June 2023 be greater than it was in June 2022?

Started Mar 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The US airline industry is facing various challenges, including pilot union negotiations and pilot shortages that could compound chronic flight delay problems at airports like ATL (CNBC, KPMG, Petoskey News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). On the BTS page, select "Atlanta, GA: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International" under "Filter Airport," select "All Carriers" under "Filter Carriers," select appropriate year under "Filter Year," and select "Departures" under "Filter Operation." For June 2022, BTS reported 6,688 Departure Delays and 743 Flights Cancelled among 26,928 Flight Operations, meaning that 27.60% of all flights were either delayed or cancelled ((6,688+743)/26,928=27.60%).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 83.35%
No 16.65%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.728339
2.
-0.652341
3.
-0.533999
4.
-0.492222
5.
-0.487341

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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