UBS asks:

How many of Ballotpedia's "noteworthy" candidates will have registered with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 as of 31 May 2023?

Started Mar 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2023 07:01AM UTC

With the first presidential primaries less than a year away, the field of candidates is expected to grow in the coming months (The Hill, The Conversation). The question will be suspended on 30 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Ballotpedia and the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (Ballotpedia, Federal Election Commission). The list of noteworthy candidates on Ballotpedia will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 May 2023. That list will be checked for registrations dated no later than 31 May 2023 as reported on 2 June 2023 by the FEC.

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 19 April 2023: A person being listed only as having an exploratory committee would not count.


The question closed "Between 10 and 12" with a closing date of 31 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
6 or fewer 6%
Between 7 and 9 11%
Between 10 and 12 73%
Between 13 and 15 9%
16 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 212
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.164752
2.
-0.1134
3.
-0.111806
4.
-0.104208
5.
-0.100883

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username