Before 31 May 2023, will a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?

Started Mar 08, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 30, 2023 11:59PM UTC

As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (Atlantic Council, US News & World Report, Daily Mail). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to the launch of this question would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus and/or tear gas alone would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 31 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.60%
No 93.40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 297
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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