While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Politico, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count. China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine that would be manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 31 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.