Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 31 May 2023?

Started Mar 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 30, 2023 11:59PM UTC

While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Politico, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count. China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine that would be manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 31 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.93%
No 98.07%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000738
2.
-0.000738
3.
-0.000738
4.
-0.000738
5.
-0.000738

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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