Will real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 be higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2022?

Started Mar 22, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 27, 2023 11:59PM UTC

The EU was already facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term before bank failures in the US and collapse of Credit Suisse (Politico, Anadolu Agency). The question will be suspended on 27 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the preliminary flash estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP - EU and euro area, Q1/2023," expected on 28 April 2023 (FRED).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 April 2023. FRED had not updated with the data released on 28 April 2023 (the report named in the question description), so the data directly from that report was used for resolution.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78.29%
No 21.71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 136
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 361
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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