Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 1 December 2023?

Started Mar 31, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 25, 2023 01:38AM UTC

Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump not tweeted since 2021 (CNBC, Twitter). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.

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NOTE 24 July 2023: Twitter's rebranding as "X" is immaterial to this question. "X" is still considered to be Twitter.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 24 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 18.46%
No 81.54%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 286
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.376431
2.
-0.374935
3.
-0.373861
4.
-0.373665
5.
-0.372709

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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