Before 1 August 2023, will the Israeli Knesset pass an amendment to the "Basic Law: The Judiciary" amending the composition of the country's Committee for the Selection of Judges?

Started Mar 31, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Challenges

Mass protests have erupted across Israel for weeks as the government seeks to amend its quasi-constitutional Basic Law regarding the judiciary to, among other things, give the government more influence on the selection of judges in the country (Voice of America, BBC, Times of Israel, NPR, The Committee for the Selection of Judges [in Hebrew], Draft Basic Law: The Judiciary (Amendment No. 3) [in Hebrew]). The amendment would be deemed passed upon its passage on the third reading (Knesset - Legislation). Subsequent action by the Israeli judiciary, including the Supreme Court, would be immaterial (Times of Israel). The abolition of the committee would count, but a renaming alone would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.94%
No 92.06%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 154
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.289
3.
-0.282
4.
-0.275

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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