Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many software as a service (SaaS) companies will be founded in the US in 2023, according to Crunchbase?

Started Mar 31, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

SaaS companies host applications and make them available to customers over the Internet (Digital Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Crunchbase (Crunchbase, parameters set in link). The filters should be set to 1) "Headquarters Location" to United States," 2) Industry" set to "SaaS," and 3) "Custom Range Date" set to "1/1/2013 - 12/31/2023." Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 February 2024. As of 31 March 2023, Crunchbase reported that 170 SaaS companies were founded in the US in 2022.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "More than 380 but fewer than 520" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 80 0%
Between 80 and 160, inclusive 0%
More than 160 but fewer than 260 1%
Between 260 and 380, inclusive 94%
More than 380 but fewer than 520 5%
520 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.75
2.
-0.73
3.
-0.498
4.
-0.489
5.
-0.296

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username