UBS asks:

What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023?

Started Apr 07, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

China has set a GDP growth target of "around 5%" for 2023 (CNBC, IMF). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in July 2023 (Trading Economics).

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Higher by more than 6.0%" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Higher by less than 3.0% 2%
Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive 8%
Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0% 27%
Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive 54%
Higher by more than 6.0% 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 109
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.556122
2.
-0.453741
3.
-0.376491
4.
-0.356051
5.
-0.302063

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username