Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 1 July 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, Monkeypox, and wild polio (International Health Regulations 2005, linked here under publications - WHO - International Health Regulations, International Health Regulations - Annex II, Pan American Health Organization, NPR).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.94% | |
| No | 99.06% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 80 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 374 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
