UBS asks:

How many total vehicles will Tesla produce in the second and third quarters of 2023?

Started May 05, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Tesla produced a record 440,808 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, though a shrinking order backlog may curb the company's push to further ramp up (TechCrunch, Inside EVs, Auto Revolution). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's second quarter 2023 production figures, typically found under "Shareholder Deck," and the "Production & Delivery" press release for the third quarter of 2023 (Tesla - Quarterly Results). Tesla's total production of vehicles in the second and third quarters of 2022 was 624,503 (2023 Q1 Tesla Quarterly Update, see page 6).

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The question closed "More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 800,000 2%
Between 800,000 and 860,000, inclusive 10%
More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000 47%
Between 920,000 and 980,000, inclusive 29%
More than 980,000 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 232
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.20005
2.
-0.189856
3.
-0.189514
4.
-0.143194
5.
-0.13883

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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