UBS asks:
How many total vehicles will Tesla produce in the second and third quarters of 2023?
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Tesla produced a record 440,808 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, though a shrinking order backlog may curb the company's push to further ramp up (TechCrunch, Inside EVs, Auto Revolution). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's second quarter 2023 production figures, typically found under "Shareholder Deck," and the "Production & Delivery" press release for the third quarter of 2023 (Tesla - Quarterly Results). Tesla's total production of vehicles in the second and third quarters of 2022 was 624,503 (2023 Q1 Tesla Quarterly Update, see page 6).
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The question closed "More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 800,000 | 2% | |
| Between 800,000 and 860,000, inclusive | 10% | |
| More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000 | 47% | |
| Between 920,000 and 980,000, inclusive | 29% | |
| More than 980,000 | 12% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 216 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 232 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 607 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
