SE_Meyer asks:

How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

Started May 12, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted a "slightly below-average" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2023 to 30 November 2023 (The Hill, Colorado State University). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2023 (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).

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The question closed "Between 7 and 9" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
3 or fewer 0%
Between 4 and 6 2%
Between 7 and 9 92%
Between 10 and 12 5%
Between 13 and 15 1%
16 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 798
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.058401
2.
-0.046885
3.
-0.041044
4.
-0.025634

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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