&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?

Started Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Catherine Cortez Masto (D)' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Catherine Cortez Masto was elected senator in Nevada on November 8. (NY Times) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is challenging Representative Joe Heck (R) for the seat vacated by retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid in a close race (Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post). As Democrats seek to retake control of the Senate, they risk losing Reid’s seat (Associated Press, Wall Street Journal). Recommended Questions Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 60%
Joe Heck (R) 40%
None of the above 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 198
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 503
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.475
4.
-0.381
5.
-0.328

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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