Will the People's Party (PP, sometimes translated as "Popular Party") win more seats in the Congress of Deputies than any other party in the next Spanish general election?

Started Jun 02, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 23, 2023 07:01AM UTC

After heavy losses for his party in local elections, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for early parliamentary elections to be held on 23 July 2023 (AP, Politico, Politico - Spain Poll of Polls). The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), to which Sánchez belongs, won 120 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the November 2019 general election, with PP winning 88 and Vox winning 52 (Guardian). If two or more parties are on the party lists that includes PP and/or Vox, the seat count for that party list would count (European Parliament - 2019 Spanish Election Results, see "PSOE/PSC," a list that included both the PSOE and the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)).

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The question closed "Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats" with a closing date of 23 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the combined seat total for PP and Vox will represent a majority of all seats 66%
Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats 33%
No 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 105
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.661257
2.
-0.573273
3.
-0.254155
4.
-0.234308
5.
-0.213355

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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