UBS asks:

What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post "zero COVID" (US News & World Report). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (Investopedia - PMI). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (Trading Economics).

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower than 46.0 2.00% +0.65% +1.81% +2.00%
Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive 2.00% -0.29% +1.25% -6.00%
Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0 54.00% -3.41% -5.56% -9.00%
Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive 41.00% +3.41% +2.75% +14.00%
Higher than 52.0 1.00% -0.35% -0.25% -1.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username