UBS asks:

What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post "zero COVID" (US News & World Report). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (Investopedia - PMI). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (Trading Economics).

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The question closed "Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 46.0 2%
Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive 5%
Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0 44%
Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive 44%
Higher than 52.0 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.208
2.
-0.2
3.
-0.103
4.
-0.08
5.
-0.069

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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