Started Oct 04, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Will China begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank before 1 October 2017?

In July of 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled on a long-running dispute between China and the Philippines about sovereignty over the strategically-located Scarborough Shoal or the Macclesfield Bank (Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, The Diplomat 6/21/16). In the spring, China indicated that land-reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal could start within the year, regardless of the PCA ruling (The Diplomat 4/25/16), and President Duterte of the Philippines has indicated that he would not lead his country to war with China over this issue (The Diplomat 6/25/16). For more information on land reclamation in the South China Sea see the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Recommended Questions Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017? Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?


China did not begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank. This question closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1578
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.465
2.
-0.454
4.
-0.436
5.
-0.435

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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