Started Nov 03, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

For this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities, including civilians killed inadvertently. In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (Foreign Policy, Reuters, The Diplomat). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (The Diplomat, Council on Foreign Relations). Recommended Questions Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016? Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 749
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 2882
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username