Started Nov 03, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.

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For this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities, including civilians killed inadvertently. In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (Foreign Policy, Reuters, The Diplomat). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (The Diplomat, Council on Foreign Relations).

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Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

1%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

749

Forecast
Count

2882

Crowd Brier Score

0.024


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.029
2.
-0.029
3.
-0.029
4.
-0.029
5.
-0.029