SE_Meyer asks:

What will be the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2023 as of 6 October 2023?

Started Jun 16, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 06, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (NOAA, Fox Weather). The question will be suspended on 5 October 2023 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 October 2023 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 was 4.704 million sq. km on 19 September.

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The question closed "Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive" with a closing date of 6 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.4 million sq. km 0%
Between 3.4 million sq. km and 3.8 million sq. km, inclusive 0%
More than 3.8 million sq. km but less than 4.2 million sq. km 0%
Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive 100%
More than 4.6 million sq. km but less than 5.0 million sq. km 0%
5.0 million sq. km or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 389
Average for questions older than 6 months: 606
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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