Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 16 December 2023?
Closed Dec 16, 2023 08:01AM UTC
NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (Politico, Newsweek). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 16 December 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.96% | |
| No | 99.04% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 121 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 350 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
