Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will President Biden's approval rating be as of 8 August 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Aug 08, 2023 07:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 10 July 2023, Biden's approval rating was 40.5%. The data for 8 August 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 10 August 2023.
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The question closed "At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%" with a closing date of 8 August 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 38.0% | 0% | |
| At least 38.0%, but less than 39.0% | 0% | |
| At least 39.0%, but less than 40.0% | 3% | |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0% | 34% | |
| At least 41.0%, but less than 42.0% | 60% | |
| At least 42.0%, but less than 43.0% | 3% | |
| 43.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 82 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 396 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 479 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
