Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will President Biden's approval rating be as of 8 August 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 08, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 10 July 2023, Biden's approval rating was 40.5%. The data for 8 August 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 10 August 2023.

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The question closed "At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%" with a closing date of 8 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 38.0% 0%
At least 38.0%, but less than 39.0% 0%
At least 39.0%, but less than 40.0% 3%
At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0% 34%
At least 41.0%, but less than 42.0% 60%
At least 42.0%, but less than 43.0% 3%
43.0% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 396
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.060021
2.
-0.053797
3.
-0.045263
5.
-0.036929

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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